1 - Why are RC sometimes overconfident?
- Hindsight bias -- tend to only think of reasons that reinforce their own thinking
- Hard/easy effect -- if we recognize a test as 'easy', we may not see our own errors
2 - What are techniques to improve accuracy?
- Practice tests
- Consider your own past results
- Recognize own mental state
- Think about probabilities/mathematical approaches, not just your own experiences
- Don't work too hard on 'outsmarting' the test or experimenters
3 - Why do groups contribute to overconfidence?
- Make it less likely that you consider alternatives
- Susceptible to frequency bias -- as you repeat your answer to one another, you may become more confident
- Socialization; desire to get along with others and assert own role in group may cause you to argue more strongly for your point of view
4 - What's the purpose of retrospective confidence judgements?
- Deciding whether to answer a question
- Deciding how strongly to argue a given position
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